Bitcoin price touched $125,000. That was Q4 2025. Now it sits near $66,888.
The gap between those two numbers is roughly $58,000. And the market is not taking it quietly. According to Ash Crypto on X, BTC has underperformed every major asset class since the fourth quarter of 2025. That is not a small claim. That is a damning one.
Fear has taken over. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to 5 on February 12th, one of the most extreme readings on record. A brief spark of optimism appeared around New Year. It vanished fast.
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What the Network Is Actually Saying
Mining difficulty dropped after the price collapse. Weaker miners shut down their machines when margins thin. The network adjusts, making it easier for those who remain. It is a self-correcting system, and it is working exactly how it should.
But active addresses are falling. They peaked on February 6th. Since then, user activity has continued to slide. Fewer people transacting daily means current prices lack the support of genuine demand. Retail is stepping back. That part is hard to ignore.
Dormant supply is another concern Ash Crypto flagged on X. Somewhere between 3.5 and 4 million BTC have not moved in years. Advances in quantum computing, the argument goes, could expose those old wallets. If even a fraction of that supply hits the market, the price impact would be severe. Developers are already building quantum-resistant solutions, though. Newer wallets carry far less risk.
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Since 2020, institutions and ETFs have absorbed roughly 2.5 to 3 million BTC. This cycle alone saw nearly 13 to 14 million BTC change hands, the largest supply shift in Bitcoin's history, without the system breaking. That context matters.
ETF Flows Are Drying, Privacy Coins Are Filling the Gap
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $133 million inflow on February 13th. A positive number. But it came after weeks of consistent outflows. Big institutions are reducing risk. Demand for ETF exposure is not where it was at the peak.
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Willy Woo on X has been warning that rising volatility points to a strengthening downtrend. The real bottom, in his view, may not be in yet. The $60,000 to $70,000 range is where some see strong support forming. Others are not so sure.
Barry Silbert of Digital Currency Group has said publicly that 5% to 10% of Bitcoin capital could rotate into privacy-focused assets as blockchain tracking erodes anonymity. Seth for Privacy, COO at CakeWallet, pointed to real evidence of this shift. Writing on X, he noted that swap volumes into and out of assets like Monero and Zcash show massive demand for approachable financial privacy. People, he said, are finally putting real money behind that preference.
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The $60,000 level is now a line the market is watching closely. Whether it holds will say a lot about whether this cycle still has more pain ahead, or whether the reset is already behind us.
