Bitcoin remains technically in an uptrend, but growing signs of exhaustion and mounting macro pressure are raising concerns that the current bull cycle may be nearing its most decisive phase yet.
According to Tony Severino, market analyst at fintech platform YouHodler, Bitcoin is still bullish by definition, but a confirmed high-timeframe bearish signal has emerged one that has historically preceded major market downturns.
According to market data from CoinGlass, Bitcoin futures open interest declined alongside rising volatility.
Glassnode metrics also show increased short-term holder distribution, historically associated with periods of market weakness.
“Bitcoin is in an uptrend, the bull is still running,” Severino said. “But a bear confirmed entry has appeared, and an explosive storm may be on its way.”
$100,000 Becomes a High-Risk Battleground
Bitcoin is now facing heavy overhead resistance, with the 50-week moving average sitting near $102,000. The $100,000 level, Severino noted, represents a major psychological barrier and could act as a classic bull trap.
A move above $100,000 may temporarily reignite bullish sentiment and give traders a sense that “we’re so back,” but Severino warned that such optimism could blind the market to the risk of a deeper reversal.
“If bulls are able to reclaim $100,000 and hold the support line for weeks to months, any chance of a bear market will likely be cancelled,” he said. “If not, it raises the probability that the bull market is already over.”
High-Timeframe Signal Raises Red Flags
Severino highlighted that a bearish high-timeframe technical signal has just confirmed on Bitcoin a signal he claims has never produced a false reading across previous market cycles.
The last time this signal appeared, Bitcoin went on to decline roughly 75% over the following 12 months before reaching a market bottom.
This signal has never missed a bull or bear market,” Severino said, emphasizing its historical reliability.
Q1 2026 Could Decide the Entire Cycle
Looking ahead, Severino believes the first quarter of 2026 will be pivotal.
Q1 2026 will show us the way for the rest of the year,” he said, calling it potentially Bitcoin’s “most decisive” period yet.
Based on long-term momentum, four-year cycle dynamics, and weakening high-timeframe indicators, Severino argues there is a higher probability that Bitcoin is transitioning into a bear market rather than preparing for a renewed breakout.
Key Support Levels to Watch
To formally confirm a shift into a bear market, Bitcoin would need to establish a lower low. In that scenario, $74,000 becomes a critical level bulls must defend to keep the broader structure intact.
A sustained breakdown below $74,000 would confirm the bear market, according to Severino, opening the door to a deeper retracement toward the $53,000 region.
Ethereum Weakness May Be Temporary
While Bitcoin dominates the near-term narrative, Severino also noted that Ethereum has been underperforming relative to BTC. However, he suggested this dynamic could shift as the cycle evolves, particularly if capital rotation accelerates during the next phase of the market.
For now, Bitcoin’s ability or failure to reclaim and hold the $100,000 level may determine whether the current bull run survives into 2026 or gives way to a new bearish cycle.
