Bullish calls for XRP to surge more than 300% by 2026 are circulating again, even as price action remains tightly compressed near key support.
The renewed optimism highlights a growing divide between long-term institutional forecasts and near-term market hesitation.
What Happened
XRP traded near $1.87, slipping modestly despite a sharp pickup in trading volume. Price remained pinned to the $1.85 support zone, signaling positioning rather than panic.
The renewed discussion follows an April research note from Standard Chartered, which reiterated a bullish $8 XRP price target by the end of 2026. That projection implies roughly 330% upside from current levels.
According to the bank, improved U.S. regulatory clarity has reduced legal overhang for Ripple and opened the door for broader institutional participation.
Why It Matters
The call stands out as one of the most aggressive forecasts from a major financial institution. It reflects a view that XRP can now grow without the litigation risks that weighed on prior cycles.
Institutional interest has already begun to show through market structure. U.S.-listed spot XRP ETFs have attracted roughly $1.25 billion in net inflows since launching in November. Flows have remained steadier than those seen in bitcoin and ether ETFs.
At the same time, XRP balances on exchanges have fallen toward multi-year lows. That trend does not guarantee upside, but it can amplify price moves if demand holds and liquidity tightens.
Market and Technical Conditions
Despite the bullish long-term narrative, near-term signals remain mixed.
XRP slipped 0.79% on the day while trading volume ran about 20.8% above weekly averages. That imbalance typically reflects rotation or distribution rather than clean accumulation.
Price failed to extend above $1.8792, reinforcing that sellers continue to lean on rallies. Moving averages remain stacked bearishly and slope lower, capping upside attempts.
Derivatives data adds complexity. Open interest climbed to roughly $3.43 billion, while spot netflows turned negative by around $10.7 million. That mix suggests leverage is building even as spot demand stays cautious.
What Traders Are Watching
The $1.85 level remains the market’s pivot.
If support holds and XRP reclaims $1.88–$1.89, the next test sits near $1.92–$1.93. A close above that zone would shift the short-term tone toward recovery and reopen a path to $2.00–$2.08.
If $1.85 breaks decisively, attention likely shifts to $1.77, with deeper demand zones near $1.60–$1.55.
A key near-term catalyst looms in January, when 1 billion XRP is scheduled for escrow unlock. Even if much of it is re-escrowed, the event often heightens sensitivity to supply and liquidity.
Conclusion
The current setup looks like positioning rather than panic. Volume is rising, but price remains compressed — a combination that often precedes sharper moves.
Whether XRP resolves higher or lower may depend less on forecasts and more on how the market reacts around $1.85 as the January escrow unlock approaches.
